2025 Election Race: Carney vs. Poilievre on Housing Amid CMHC’s 3.5 Million Homes Target

As we approach election day on Monday, April 28, 2025, Canada stands at a pivotal juncture.

The federal election, called by Prime Minister Mark Carney following his recent succession of Justin Trudeau, has become a referendum on leadership amid escalating economic tensions with the United States.

Central to the national discourse is the pressing housing crisis, underscored by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s (CMHC) projection that an additional 3.5 million homes are needed by 2030 to restore affordability.

This article examines and contrasts the housing strategies proposed by the leading contenders—Liberal Leader Mark Carney and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre—in addressing this critical issue.

Mark Carney’s Liberal Housing Plan

Mark Carney’s approach aims to double Canada’s current residential construction rate to nearly 500,000 homes annually over the next decade.

Key components include:

• Establishing Build Canada Homes (BCH): A new crown corporation tasked with building affordable housing at scale, particularly on public lands .

• Investing in Prefabricated Housing: Allocating $25 billion in debt financing and $1 billion in equity financing to support innovative Canadian prefabricated home builders, aiming to reduce construction times and costs .

• Providing Low-Cost Financing: Offering $10 billion in low-cost financing to affordable home builders, including funds for deeply affordable housing, supportive housing, Indigenous housing, and shelters .

• Reducing Development Charges: Cutting municipal development charges in half for multi-unit residential housing and compensating municipalities for lost revenue over five years .

• Reintroducing Tax Incentives: Bringing back the Multiple Unit Rental Building (MURB) cost allowance to spur rental housing development .

Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Housing Plan

Pierre Poilievre proposes building 2.3 million homes over the next five years, focusing on reducing regulatory barriers and taxes.

Key elements include:

• Streamlining Approvals: Rewarding municipalities that increase homebuilding permits by over 15% annually with additional federal funding, while reducing funding for those that miss targets .

• Mandating High-Density Zoning: Requiring cities to permit high-density housing around federally funded transit stations as a condition for receiving federal funds .

• Cutting Taxes: Eliminating the GST on new homes under $1.3 million and on new rental housing construction to lower costs for buyers and renters .

• Utilizing Federal Lands: Identifying and selling 15% of federal land and buildings in cities within the first 100 days to developers committed to building affordable homes quickly .

• Reforming Building Codes: Simplifying the National Model Building Code to reduce costs and expedite construction .

Alignment with CMHC’s 3.5 Million Homes Target

Both plans aim to address the housing shortfall identified by CMHC. Carney’s plan targets 500,000 homes annually over ten years, totaling 5 million homes, while Poilievre’s plan aims for 2.3 million homes over five years, averaging 460,000 annually .

However, CMHC estimates that Canada needs to build an additional 3.5 million homes by 2030, requiring approximately 700,000 new units annually .

Carney’s plan, with its focus on prefabricated housing and government-led initiatives, may face challenges related to labor shortages and material supply constraints . Poilievre’s plan emphasizes deregulation and tax incentives to stimulate private sector construction but may encounter obstacles in ensuring affordability and equitable distribution .

Conclusion

While both plans present ambitious strategies to tackle Canada’s housing crisis, neither fully meets the CMHC’s projected requirement of 700,000 new homes annually to restore affordability by 2030. Addressing this challenge will likely require a combination of public and private sector efforts, regulatory reforms, and significant investments in construction capacity and workforce development .

Citations

1. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). “Estimating how much housing we’ll need by 2030.”

2. Liberal Party of Canada. “Mark Carney’s Liberals unveil Canada’s most ambitious housing plan since the Second World War.”

3. Conservative Party of Canada. “Poilievre Will Build 2.3 Million Homes In Five Years.”

4. The Prime Position. “Canada’s Housing Crisis: Construction Capacity and the Path Forward.”